Trinity Street Capital Partners discusses the trends in multifamily real estate and residential real estate. Trinity Street offers construction, bridge and permanent loans for multifamily properties and build for rent.
The U.S. multifamily market in 2026 is likely to feel late-cycle but not broken: fundamentals generally sound, rent growth modest, capital markets healing, and performance increasingly “winner-take-most” by region and asset quality. Below is a structured outlook you can think of as a base case for 2026, with clear places where upside and downside could…
Recently the federal agencies have considered enabling mortgages amortized over 50 years: spreading principal repayments over five decades rather than the conventional 30 (or 15) years. The objective: lower monthly debt service for homebuyers, improving affordability in a high-price/ high-rate environment. Key trade-offs: Monthly payments drop (because amortization is stretched) but total interest paid…
If Zohran Mamdani Wins: What It Could Mean for NYC Multifamily Zohran Mamdani is running for mayor on a tenant-first, public-builder agenda that is far more interventionist than recent administrations. Below is a scenario analysis—what a Mamdani win could plausibly mean for NYC multifamily across rent-stabilized and market-rate assets, development, capital markets, and policy risk….
The balance of evidence points to moderately elevated lumber prices with above-normal volatility through Q4 2025. As of today (Sept 16, 2025), the forward curve prices late-2025 delivery near the high-$500s/MBF—with Nov ’25 around $586/MBF—implying a market that expects tighter supply than in 2024 but not a 2021-style spike. My base case is an…
Multifamily Construction Outlook Multifamily Starts on a Downward Trajectory Recent forecasts show a clear pattern: multifamily housing starts are expected to decline through the end of 2025, reaching a low point in Q4. The latest projections predict annualized starts will drop to approximately 372,000 units in Q4 2025 before rebounding to around 402,000…
Possible Housing Emergency? With housing affordability at crisis levels across much of the United States, former President Donald Trump has floated the possibility of declaring a housing emergency if he returns to office. Such a declaration would carry profound implications for the multifamily sector, which sits at the center of the national debate over…
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac In the evolving landscape of U.S. housing finance, the Trump administration’s reported plans to pursue an initial public offering (IPO) for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have sparked intense debate. As of August 2025, with the administration eyeing a potential IPO in the fall or winter, this move could…
Key Trends & Forecasts Construction Starts & Supply Pipeline Fannie Mae reports that multifamily housing starts peaked in Q2 2025 at an annualized rate of roughly 390,000 units, down to 366,000 units in Q1 2026. The forecast for Q4 2025 shows a gradual decline following this peak. According to NAHB, starts declined 25% in…
Housing Outlook The multifamily housing sector in the second half of 2025 is poised for stabilization and selective opportunities amid a complex interplay of supply, demand, and economic factors. Below is a detailed outlook based on current trends, market dynamics, and expert analyses, with a focus on key drivers shaping multifamily development. Supply…
The multifamily real estate market in the United States is poised for a pivotal period in the second half of 2025, as shifting economic conditions, supply dynamics, and robust demand converge to shape a cautiously optimistic landscape. After navigating challenges such as rising interest rates and a historic wave of new supply in recent years,…
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